The Industry Isn’t Slowing Down—It’s Splitting Apart

Written by Jennifer Morton

Walk your shop floor on a busy Saturday and things probably look fine. Bags are moving. Members are browsing. The register is ringing.

But if you attended the National Club Association’s Conference last month and listened to the State of the Restaurant Industry presentation—or paid close attention to what’s happening across the broader hospitality and retail landscape—you’d know that the surface can be deceiving. Beneath the activity, something more significant is taking shape. And the golf retail world would be wise to take notice.

“The top 10% of Americans accounted for 50% of all spending in 2025.” — Dr. Chad Moutray, Ph.D., CBE, Senior Vice President, Research & Knowledge and Chief Economist, National Restaurant Association

Two Customers. Two Realities. One Shop.

The phrase that dominated this presentation was “K-shaped economy.” It describes what happens when an economic recovery—or period of growth—doesn’t lift all boats equally. Instead, it splits: one group rises, another stagnates or falls.

For restaurant operators, this shows up as a consumer who still wants to go out—but is making harder choices about where, how often, and how much to spend. For golf shops, the parallel is unmistakable.

You likely see both types of customer every week:

• One walks in, selects a full outfit, and checks out without hesitation.
• Another circles the floor slowly, weighing options, comparing price points, and ultimately passing on something they might have bought eighteen months ago.

Both customers are real. Both deserve your attention. And critically—both require something different from you.

Dr. Chad Mutray, Chief Economist at the National Restaurant Association, was direct about the divide: lower and middle-income consumers are genuinely struggling. Multiple job holding is rising. Savings rates are falling. Gas prices jumped over a dollar per gallon in just seven weeks. These pressures don’t disappear at the door of a golf shop.

Profitability Is the Story No One Wants to Tell

Here’s the number that stopped the room: 42% of restaurant operators reported they were not profitable last year. The median profit margin for a full-service restaurant dropped to 2.8%—down from 4% before the pandemic.

That’s not a restaurant-only story. It’s a warning for any operator in the hospitality and specialty retail space.

Why is profitability under such pressure? Three forces are converging:

• Costs have risen sharply—food costs are up 34% since the pandemic.
• Labor remains tight and wages continue to grow, running around 3% year-over-year.
• Consumers are increasingly resistant to price increases, forcing operators to absorb more of the cost themselves.

You may still be selling. But keeping what you earn is getting harder.

“Costs are up. Consumers are cautious. The question is no longer whether to adapt—it’s how fast.”

Value Has Been Redefined—and Price Is Only Part of It

Today’s customer is running a constant mental calculation: Is this worth it? Not just financially—but experientially.

“Value” in 2026 doesn’t mean cheap. It means:

• Quality that justifies the price
• An experience that feels personal, not transactional
• Ease—the confidence that comes from a well-curated, well-merchandised environment
• A feeling that this purchase was the right call

For golf retailers, this is both a challenge and a genuine opportunity. The shop that makes decision-making effortless—through intentional product curation, knowledgeable staff, and a clean merchandising story—wins the customer who’s being more selective. Not by discounting. By delivering clarity and confidence.

Convenience Is Quietly Raising the Bar

One of the most striking data points from the briefing: off-premise dining (takeout, delivery, drive-through) now accounts for 90% of sales at limited-service restaurants—up from 74% before the pandemic. Even full-service restaurants have seen their off-premise share jump from 12% to 35%.

Half of all Americans do takeout at least once a week. Two-thirds of Gen Z say it’s essential to their lifestyle.

What does this have to do with a golf shop? Everything—because those same customers walk through your door with the same expectations they’ve been trained to have everywhere else. Friction-free. Fast. Easy.

The question worth asking honestly: How seamless is the experience in your shop, from the moment a member walks in to the moment they leave with a purchase? Are you meeting customers where they are—or expecting them to meet you?

Convenience doesn’t replace the in-store experience. It raises the standard for what that experience should feel like.

Your Team Is Now Your Greatest Competitive Advantage

The labor market discussion at the conference was sobering. Monthly job creation has fallen to 50,000–75,000—down from 150,000+ just a few years ago. Labor force participation is declining. The US fertility rate is at an all-time low, and the country may reach net-negative population as early as 2030. That’s not a short-term staffing problem. It’s a structural shift.

For golf retailers, this means the human beings on your shop floor are more valuable than ever—and harder to replace.

In a world where any product can be found online and prices compared in seconds, the staff interaction is what creates loyalty. The way a team member greets a guest, anticipates a need, or makes a recommendation that feels genuinely personal—that’s the differentiator that no algorithm can replicate.

Invest in your people. Train them. Retain them. That investment has a compounding return that shows up in member loyalty long after the transaction ends.

Tourism Is Down—and It’s Affecting the Bottom Line

One trend that’s easy to miss if you’re not tracking it: tourism is down. Not just from Canada—from Europe and Latin America as well. For restaurants in destination markets, roughly 30% of revenue typically comes from non-local visitors. For fine dining, that figure climbs to 40%.

For golf clubs and resorts in travel-dependent markets—Florida, the Southwest, coastal communities—this isn’t a footnote. It’s a meaningful headwind. Half of restaurant operators reported lower tourism-related sales last year.

If your club sees significant visitor traffic, now is the time to deepen your connection with your local, year-round membership base. That relationship is the stable ground when the traveling customer is harder to count on.

The Opportunity Inside the Uncertainty

It would be easy to read all of this and feel like the environment is simply harder. And it is. But harder environments have a useful quality: they separate the intentional operators from everyone else.

When conditions tighten, the shops that stand out are the ones that:

• Understand the different customers they’re serving—and tailor the experience accordingly
• Deliver clear, consistent value at multiple price points
• Invest in experience over inventory volume
• Build a team that creates genuine connection with members
• Stay focused on what actually drives results, rather than chasing every trend

The consumer is not disappearing. They’re becoming more selective. And selective consumers don’t stop spending—they just become more loyal to the businesses that earn their trust.

“Are we giving them a reason to choose us?”

A Final Word

Here’s the good news: golf doesn’t need a turnaround story. Participation is booming, the customer base is expanding, and enthusiasm for the game has never been stronger. What Dr. Moutray’s insights offer isn’t a warning — it’s a playbook for making the most of the moment. Understanding your K-shaped customer, delivering on value, investing in your team — these aren’t defensive moves. The golfer is showing up. Make sure your shop gives them a reason to stay.

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